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China 3.0 (ECFR policy report Book 66), by Michael Anti
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China is not only changing leaders; it is also moving into the next phase of its development. This unique collection of essays – written by China’s most prominent thinkers – provides an unrivalled insight into the big debates that are taking place about the future of China’s growth model, its political system and its foreign policy.
They suggest that China could be on the verge of a change as significant as Mao Zedong’s Communist revolution (China 1.0) and Deng Xiaoping’s market revolution (China 2.0). We call this “China 3.0”.
- Sales Rank: #261150 in eBooks
- Published on: 2012-11-06
- Released on: 2012-11-06
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
16 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting and Up-To-Date
By Loyd Eskildson
Corruption is causing the most tension in today's China, per author Anti; this is seemingly confirmed by the considerable public attention now focused on such by its new leaders. He says the Chinese think of history in 30-year cycles. China 1.0 was the years of Mao, from 1949 to 1978 when China had a planned economy and a foreign policy of spreading revolution, China 2.0 was the China that began with Deng Xiaoping and is 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' in 1978 that emphasized export-led growth and a quest for stability (leading to the Tiananmen massacre) that lasted until the 2008 financial crisis. China 3.0 is now faced with crises borne out of Deng's successes and the new model (egalitarian social policies) provided by Bo Xilai's Chongqing (eg. reforms to the hukou system, a fairer land exchange scheme, and emphasis on domestic consumption).
The debate now is between liberals wanting limits on the state's power and neo-authoritarians fearing such will lead to a bureaucratic government unable to make tough decisions or challenge the corruption, between defensive internationalists wanting to play a role in existing global institutions and nationalists wanting China to assert itself, and between a Darwinist New Right wanting to privatize all the SOEs to unlock entrepreneurial energy and an egalitarian New Left believing China's growth will best continue through clever state planning (eg. Justin Yifu Lin - at least for another two decades). Still others are concerned at the growth of inequality and China's loss of its 'iron rice bowl' of social protections - the most obvious display of which are the millions of migrants lacking rights to urban housing, education, and health-care. Lacking these benefits, citizens save almost half their incomes as a hedge, but the state-owned banks gives them artificially low interest rates that make capital available for speculative investments.
In 1995 China's domestic intelligence service reported there were almost 9,000 violent demonstrations that year; state-backed studies estimate that has risen to 180,000 by 2011. Guangdon has become a model of flexible authoritarianism - Wukan village in that province saw peasants battling over land confiscated by corrupt local authorities, with the dispute resolved with an election. Others, especially those of age during the Cultural Revolution, fear mass democracy becoming mob rule, and or have been influenced by the growth of problems with democracy in developed nations. Still others see widespread contempt for the law making it impossible to find an institutional fix, requiring the charismatic power of leader (eg. Mao, Deng). Finally, there's debate between those seeing the Internet as inevitably bringing greater freedom, and others contending the state has manipulated it to mobilize electronic crowds the play the same role as the Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution.
When Deng began the reversal of Mao's thinking he counseled that China should keep a low profile, avoid conflicts, and concentrate on economic development. Thus, it accepted U.S. international domination and extracted benefits from free-riding on American protection of its own investments. China now has to protect the interests and safety of its citizens around the world, some 130 million, many in unstable places such as Afghanistan, Iran, and Angola. That, combined with its strong reliance on energy and other commodities from far-away places, has brought talk of the need for a blue-water navy. Complicating the situation is that Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Senkaku Islands have helped create a resurgence of American power in Asia. Meanwhile, China's foreign ministry is 'out-ranked' by many companies, SOEs, and provincial governments interested in advancing their profits, and outpourings of anger on the Internet about the preceding territory disputes suggests the Chinese people expect tougher policies towards their neighbors.
Chinese economists predict their nation's economy will double America's by the end of the next 20 years, becoming the world's largest domestic market and the biggest source of foreign investment. Author Anti suggests that the rest of the world must abandon its visions of China 1.0 and 2.0, and rethink relationships with China 3.0
14 of 15 people found the following review helpful.
Affluence, stability and power
By H. Schneider
Winds of change?
This volume of political essays on the status and future of China is a useful overview of current schools of thought. If you are in a rush, the introductory essay could do the whole job for you by giving concise summaries.
Debate in China is often not very explicit. You need to know the background noise to realize when and where you see a controversy. It is the exact opposite of abrasive American political discourse. Too much hedging often makes debates boring. This volume is not about hedging, though there is also some apparatchik speak, regrettably.
Still, I will never cease to be puzzled when political categories from my Western European world are applied to Chinese debates. What is the meaning of 'right' or 'left' or 'new left' or 'neoliberal' or 'neoconservative' in this context? Even 'neo-Maoist' is not really a clear term, given the old man's own confusion.
We all know that predictions are more difficult when they deal with the future, but the editors have dared to claim that there is a threshold to something new being crossed right now, if caused by nothing else than a leadership replacement at a time which comes hard on the heel of a major global crisis, which is not entirely done with yet.
The editors don't shy away from the myth of the 30 year cycle ... Mao's way was followed since the late 40s, then Deng's from the late 70s... What now? Has the future already begun or are we watching it in the making? Time will tell.
My main eureka moment in this volume was caused by an article about the political meaning of the internet under Chinese conditions. One can see the many mini bloggers as a new kind of Red Guards in a new kind of Cultural Revolution. They are unleashed and manipulated by the authorities (by whom exactly?), they serve as message bearer, but they may also run out of control. They may be a new face of democracy or they may be the mob who drives out democracy even more. They are certainly a tool for gauging public opinions and moods.
New technologies are being used for old games, but will they remain docile? The net creates the first real large forum for discussions in China.
One of the reasons or excuses that one hears often in discussions about the lack of democratization is the Cultural Revolution experience, where mobs ran wild.
Michael Anti's essay on the Internet and Chinanet is the most readable and interesting in this book.
The foreign policy discussions are scary. We can prepare ourselves for a bipolar world with an assertive and aggressive newcomer on the top. If China starts acting like the US, the world will be a dangerous place. Even more than now.
Economics are comparatively easy. By 2030, China will be the largest economy, ahead of the US. Alternatively, by 2030, China will have collapsed under its contradictions. I have heard the collapse theory since I have been looking at China, a while ago. The country doesn't show any inclination to collapse, frankly speaking. One should not underestimate the rationality and power of its leadership. On the other hand, if emotions of a patriotic kind take over, all bets are off. Or if an inclination for international power gambles takes charge...
The book is probably not a good introduction for a newcomer, but quite interesting for those who are a little familiar with the subject.
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Insightful
By Walter R. Huber
This is a great collection of essays. Well written and translated clearly, they offer a lot of insight into how various academics and politicians are thinking in China. While there are a lot of really good books analyzing China from the perspective of Western minds (China: Partial Power for one), this is unique in that it gives westerners insight into what those in China think about their rise and their proper place in the world.
I would recommend this book for anyone interested in knowing how China views the world around it.
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